你所不知底的慕课——不是每个人都有机会重头再来

按:
那篇是文学人八月刊“毕生学习”尤其报导的最后一篇,关切在技巧越发有可能取代人类工作的明天,低技术群体的再度教育难点。读完本文你将掌握到眼前的MOOC教育形式带来福利的同时其实并有失公平(硕士们一马当先抓紧时间自我进步吧),以及新加坡共和国这么的国家为其平民提供的继续教育福利。作为个体来说,不可能坐等国家或小卖部提供便宜,利用整整资源抓紧学习才是王道。
中秋假日就快为止了,扶朕起来,继续求学!

The elephant in the truck

Retraining low-skilled workers

Systems for continuous reskilling threaten to buttress inequality
Jan 14th 2017

英文中有句谚语叫做an elephant in the room,意思是there is an obvious
problem or difficult situation that people do not want to talk
about.此处有戏仿的代表,因为下文提到了卡车司机。
buttress: to support or give strength to sb/sth

图片 1

慕课时代的教诲公平

  1. IMAGINE YOU ARE a 45-year-old long-distance lorry driver. You never
    enjoyed school and left as soon as you could, with a smattering
    of
    qualifications and no great love of learning. The job is tiring
    and solitary, but it does at least seem to offer decent job
    security: driver shortages are a perennial complaint in the
    industry, and the average age of the workforce is high (48 in
    Britain), so the shortfalls are likely to get worse. America’s
    Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) says there were 1.8m truckers in
    2014 and expects a 5% rise in their number by 2024. “As the economy
    grows, the demand for goods will increase and more truck drivers
    will be needed to keep supply chains moving,” predicts the BLS
    website, chirpily.
    1)想象你是一个45岁的长途货车驾驶员。你一贯没有喜欢过学习,并赶紧离开了母校,唯有一点点专业资格,也不爱学习。那项工作是疲弱而一身的,但它起码如同可以提供得体的行事有限支撑:司机短缺是这一个行当长年的埋怨,劳引力的平均年龄很高(在大英帝国为48岁),所以司机短缺情况或者会变得更糟。美利坚合众国劳工总计局(BLS)表示,二零一四年有180万卡车司机,臆想到2024年将大增5%。“随着经济的增加,货物必要将增多,须要愈来愈多的卡车司机来保证供应链运转”,BLS网站欢快地预测道。

  2. But the future might unfold very differently. For all the
    excitement over self-driving passenger cars, the freight industry is
    likely to adopt autonomous vehicles even faster. And according to a
    report in 2014 by Morgan Stanley, a bank, full automation might
    reduce the pool of American truck drivers by two-thirds. Those
    projections came hedged with caveats, and rightly so. The
    pace of adoption may be slowed by regulation. Drivers may still be
    needed to deal with unforeseen problems; if such jobs require more
    technical knowledge, they may even pay better. Employment in other
    sectors may grow as freight costs come down. But there is a chance
    that in the not too distant future a very large number of
    truckers will find themselves redundant. The implications are
    immense.
    2)不过,未来说不定会以差其他艺术展开。自动驾驶乘用小车引起了各行各业的提神,而货运行业或者更快地应用电动驾驶车子。根据二零一四年摩尔根士丹利(一家银行)的告诉,全自动化可能会使美国卡车司机的多少缩减三分之二。那个预测都面临限制性条款阻碍,而那也是相应的。选用电动驾驶技能的进度可能会由于囚禁而减慢。照旧可能需求司机来处理不可预言的难点;要是这么些工作需求更加多的技能知识,他们竟然可以得到更好的酬金。其他机构的就业可能随着运费的大跌而增添。但很有可能在不远的未来,大量的卡车司机会发现自己是多余的。影响是高大的。

  3. Knowing when to jump is one problem. For people with decades of
    working life still ahead of them, it is too early to quit but it is
    also risky to assume that nothing will change. Matthew Robb of
    Parthenon-EY, a consultancy, thinks that governments should be
    talking to industry bodies about the potential for mass redundancies
    and identifying trigger points, such as the installation of sensors
    on motorways, that might prompt retraining. “This is a boiling-frog
    problem,” he says. “It is not thought about.”
    3)知道曾几何时跳现身有工作是一个标题。对于还有几十年的劳作才退休的人来说,现在还为风尚早,但借使什么都不会改变也是有高风险的。一家咨询集团Parthenon-EY的Matthew罗布b认为,政坛理应开端与同行业机构钻探大气裁员的可能,并规定裁员的触发点,例如在高速公路上安装传感器的时候,来促进再作育。
    “那是一个温水煮青蛙的题材,”他说。 “还平昔不人想到。”

  4. For lower-skilled workers of this sort the world of MOOCs, General
    Assembly and LinkedIn is a million miles away. Around 80% of
    Coursera’s learners have university degrees. The costs of
    reskilling, in terms of time and money, are easiest to bear for
    people who have savings, can control their working hours or work for
    companies that are committed to upgrading their workforce. And
    motivation is an issue: the tremendous learning opportunities
    offered by the internet simply do not appeal to everyone.
    4)对于那类低技术工人,MOOCs,GA和LinkedIn的世界距离万里之遥。约有80%的Coursera学习者有高校学位。就时间和金钱方面来看,再作育的财力对于有储蓄、可以控制他们的做事时间或为致力于拉长劳引力的信用社办事的人来说是最不难的。而且动机是一个题材:互联网提供的赫赫的上学机会并不抓住每个人。

Whosoever hath not

  1. The rewards of retraining are highest for computing skills, but
    there is no natural pathway from trucker to coder. And even if there
    were, many of those already in the workforce lack both the
    confidence and the capability to make the switch. In its
    Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies,
    the OECD presents a bleak picture of skills levels in 33 member
    countries (see chart). One in five adults, on average, has poor
    reading and numeracy skills. One in four has little or no experience
    of computers. On a measure of problem-solving ability using
    technology, most adults are at or below the lowest level of
    proficiency.
    5)再作育的嘉奖对于电脑技术是参天的,但从卡车司机到程序员并没有天然路径。即使存在,很多曾经在工作中的人缺失信心和能力进展职业转换。在其成长能力国际评估安排中,经合社团提供了一个关于33个成员国技能水平的惨淡的气象。平均而言,五分之一的中年人的开卷和计算能力很差。四分之一的人有很少或从不电脑的阅历。在衡量采取技术解决难点能力方面,半数以上成年人处于或低于熟练程度的最低水平。

  2. Moreover, learning is most effective when people are able to
    practise their new skills. Yet many jobs, including lorry-driving,
    afford little such opportunity, and some of them are being deskilled
    further. Research by Tom Higgins of Cardiff University suggests that
    the numeracy requirements for retail assistants and care-home
    workers in Britain went down between 1997 and 2012. The head of one
    of the world’s biggest banks worries that a back-office operation in
    India has disaggregated its work into separate tasks so
    effectively that employees are no longer able to understand the
    processes as a whole, let alone make useful suggestions for
    improving them.
    6)此外,当人们可以操练他们的新技巧时,学习是最实用的。然则,许多行事,包罗货车驾驶,没有提供这样的空子,其中一部分依然正在越来越下滑这几个技术。卡迪夫大学的汤姆Higgins的钻研申明,对于英帝国零售助理和护理人员的盘算能力要求在1997年和二零一二年之内下落。世界上最大的银行之一的首长担心,其印度的后台部门把工作分解成单身的职务,如此有效以至于使职工不再可以通晓整个经过,更毫不说提骑一蹴而就的指出来创新它们。

  3. So the truckers’ dilemma will be very hard to solve. “It’s difficult
    when you don’t have a good answer even in an ideal world,” says
    Jesper Roine, an economist who sat on a Swedish commission to
    examine the future of work. But as a thought experiment it
    highlights some of the problems involved in upgrading the stock
    of
    low-skilled and mid-skilled workers. Any decent answer will
    need a co-ordinated effort to bring together individuals, employers
    and providers of education. That suggests a role for two entities in
    particular.
    7)所以卡车司机的困境将很难化解。
    “假诺你在一个名特优的世界里没有一个好的答案,那就很拮据的,”管工学家Jesper
    Roine在一个瑞典委员会分析工作的前景时说。但作为一个思索实验,它强调了升级低技术和中级技术工人群体所提到的局地难题。任何方便的应对都必要协调一致的竭力,使个人、雇主和指点提供者聚集在同步。那注解多个实体特其他功用。

  4. One is trade unions. They have an industry-wide view of trends that
    may not be available to smaller employers. They can also accompany
    people throughout their working lives, which may become increasingly
    important in a world of rising self-employment. Denmark’s
    tripartite system, for example, binds together employers,
    government and unions. Firms and unions get together to identify
    skills needs; collective-bargaining agreements enshrine rights
    to
    paid leave for training. The country’s famed “flexicurity”
    system offers unemployed workers a list of 258 vocational-training
    programmes.
    8)一个是工会。他们会从全方位行业的角度解析趋势,这几个是小型雇主所做不到的。他们还是能在大千世界的上上下下办事生涯中陪伴他们,那可能在一个自由职业增加的世界变得进一步主要。例如,丹麦王国的三方制度将雇主,政坛和工会联系在协同。公司和工汇集在一道确定技能须求;集体谈判协商保护带薪休假去参预培训的义务。该国闻明的“灵活安全”制度为失去工作工人提供了258个职业培训项目标清单。

  5. In Britain a well-regarded programme called UnionLearn uses union
    representatives both to inform workers about training options and to
    liaise with employers on workers’ requests for training. Employees
    seem more likely to discuss shortfalls in basic skills with union
    representatives than with managers. An analysis by academics at
    Leeds University Business School shows that between 2001 and 2013
    union members in Britain were a third more likely to have received
    training than non-unionised workers.
    9)在英帝国,一个名为UnionLearn的出名项目配置工会表示去告诉工人他们的打造选拔,并与雇主联系确定工人的作育须要。员工如同更倾向于与工会表示,而不是与官员,商量基本技能方面的缺陷。安卡拉高校商高校学者的分析注解,在2001年和二〇一三年时期,大英帝国的工会积极分子比非工会工人更有可能受到培训的人数多了三分之一。

  6. The second entity is government. There is much talk about lifelong
    learning, though few countries are doing much about it. The Nordics
    fall into this less populated camp. But it is Singapore that can
    lay claim to the most joined-up approach with its
    SkillsFuture initiative. Employers in the city-state are asked to
    spell out the changes, industry by industry, that they expect to
    happen over the next three to five years, and to identify the skills
    they will need. Their answers are used to create “industry
    transformation maps” designed to guide individuals on where to
    head.
    10)第二实体是政坛。有不少关于一生学习的议论,即使很少有国家对此有所行动。北欧国家就属于此人不多的大本营。可是,新加坡共和国以此国度可以宣称它有成熟的不二法门——它提倡了SkillsFuture安插。这个城池国家各样行业的农奴主被需求现实表明她们愿意在将来三到五年内发出的本行扭转,以及确定他们将需求的技艺。他们的答案被用来创建“行业转型地图”,意在指引人们走向何方。

lay claim to: If you lay claim to something you do not have, you
say that it belongs to you.
joined-up : Journalists sometimes use joined-up to describe plans,
ideas, or organizations which seem sensible, sophisticated, and
mature, especially when they think that they have been unsophisticated
or immature in the past.
spell out: If you spell something out, you explain it in detail or
in a very clear way.

  1. Since January 2016 every Singaporean above the age of 25 has been
    given a S$500 ($345) credit that can be freely used to pay for any
    training courses provided by 500 approved providers, including
    universities and MOOCs. Generous subsidies, of up to 90% for
    Singaporeans aged 40 and over, are available on top of this
    credit. The programme currently has a budget of S$600m a year, which
    is due to rise to S$1 billion within three years. According to Ng
    Cher Pong, SkillsFuture’s chief executive, the returns on that
    spending matter less than changing the mindset around continuous
    reskilling.
    11)自二〇一六年十月起,每位25岁以上的新加坡共和国人都早已收获500新元(345台币)的信贷,可以擅自地用于支付由500家获准许的扶植提供者(包罗大学和MOOC)提供的其余培训科目。对于90%的40岁及以上的新加坡人,除了那份信贷之外,还有慷慨的补贴。该安顿近来的预算为每年6亿新元,将在三年内扩展到10亿新元。按照SkillsFuture老板Ng
    Cher
    Pong的传道,那种支付的回报不如改成对不断重新学习新技巧的情感带来的报恩。

on top of: in addition to

  1. Some programmes cater to the needs of those who lack basic
    skills. Tripartite agreements between unions, employers and
    government lay out career and skills ladders for those who are
    trapped in low-wage occupations. Professional-conversion programmes
    offer subsidised training to people switching to new careers in
    areas such as health care.
    12)一些方案满足那几个不够基本技能的人的急需。工会,雇主和当局时期的三方协商为这么些被困于低薪水工作的人安排职业和技能阶梯。职业转换安排为转向诸如医疗保健领域等新饭碗的人提供带补贴的栽培。

  2. Given Singapore’s size and political system, this approach is not
    easily replicated in many other countries, but lessons can still be
    drawn. It makes sense for employers, particularly smaller ones, to
    club together to signal their skills needs to the workforce at
    large
    . Individual learning accounts have a somewhat chequered
    history—fraudulent training providers helped scupper a British
    experiment in the early 2000s—but if well designed, they can offer
    workers educational opportunities without being overly
    prescriptive.
    13)鉴于新加坡共和国的范围和政治制度,许多任何国家并不便于复制那种措施,但如故可以学学其经验。对于雇主,尤其是较小的农奴主来说,一头凑钱将她们的技巧要求大致告诉劳动者是有意义的。个人学习客户有部分波折的历史——欺诈的栽培提供者破坏了U.K.在21世纪初的教育实验,但如果规划可以,他们得以提供工人的率领机会,而但是分古板

club together: If people club together to do something, they all
give money towards the cost of it. e.g. For my thirtieth birthday, my
friends clubbed together and bought me a watch.
chequered: If a person or organization has had a chequered career
or history, they have had a varied past with both good and bad
periods.

Any fool can know

  1. In June 2016, this newspaper surveyed the realm of artificial
    intelligence and the adjustments it would require workers to make as
    jobs changed. “That will mean making education and training flexible
    enough to teach new skills quickly and efficiently,” we concluded.
    “It will require a greater emphasis on lifelong learning and
    on-the-job training, and wider use of online learning and
    video-game-style simulation.”
    14)二零一六年四月,本报纸(历史学人把温馨一定为报纸)调查了人工智能的圈子,以及须要工作职员随着工作变动而作出的调整。
    “这意味着让教育和培训具有丰盛的油滑可以快捷有效地讲学新技巧,”我们统计说。
    “这将急需更进一步强调一生学习和在职培训,以及更常见地使用在线学习和视频游戏风格的效仿形式。”

  2. The uncertainties around the pace and extent of technological change
    are enormous. Some fear a future of mass unemployment. Others are
    sanguine that people will have time to adapt. Companies have to
    want to adopt new technologies, after all, and regulators may
    impede their take-up. What is not in doubt is the need for
    new and more efficient ways to develop and add workplace skills.
    15)技术革命的快慢和水平的不确定性是高大的。有些人揪心大规模无业的前途。其余人对这个人们将有时光适应是乐观的。毕竟,公司只可以动用新技巧,而禁锢单位可能阻碍接受率。毫无疑问的是,需要新的和更管用的艺术来发展和充实工作技术。

  3. The faint outlines of a new ecosystem for connecting employment and
    education are becoming discernible. Employers are putting
    greater emphasis on adaptability, curiosity and learning as
    desirable attributes for employees. They are working with
    universities and alternative providers to create and improve their
    own supply of talent. Shorter courses, lower costs and online
    delivery are making it easier for people to combine work and
    training. New credentials are being created to signal skills.
    16)连接就业和教育的新生态系统的模糊概略正在变得清晰。雇主更压实调适应性、好奇心和爱学习作为职工的赏心悦目属性。他们正在与大学和可代表它们的教育提供者协作,创制和拉长自己的人才供应。更短的课程,更低的工本和在线提交使人们更便于结合工作和栽培。新的证书正在被成立出来以表示所兼有的技艺。

  4. At the same time, new technologies should make learning more
    effective as well as more necessary. Virtual and augmented reality
    could radically improve professional training. Big data offer the
    chance for more personalised education. Platforms make it easier to
    connect people of differing levels of knowledge, allowing
    peer-to-peer teaching and mentoring. “Education is becoming
    flexible, modular, accessible and affordable,” says Simon Nelson,
    the boss of FutureLearn, the Open University MOOC.
    17)同时,新技巧应该使学习更管用,更有必要。虚拟和压完成实可以彻底改正职业培训。大数量提供了更五个性化教育的火候。平台使得连接分裂文化水平的人更易于,允许同伴教学和指点。开放大学MOOC
    FutureLearn的COO娘Simon尼尔森说:“教育正在变得灵活,模块化,易于使用和负担得起。”

  5. But for now this nascent ecosystem is disproportionately likely
    to benefit those who least need help. It concentrates on advanced
    technological skills, which offer the clearest returns and are
    relatively easy to measure. And it assumes that people have the
    money, time, motivation and basic skills to retrain.
    18)可是现在以此新生态系统不成比例地惠及最不要求支持的人。它小心于先进的技艺技能,提供最清晰的报恩,并且相对不难测量。它假使人们有钱财、时间、动机和基本技能来陶冶。

  6. Thanks to examples like Singapore’s, it is possible to imagine ways
    in which continuous education can be made more accessible and
    affordable for the mass of citizens. But it is as easy—indeed,
    easier—to imagine a future in which the emerging infrastructure of
    lifelong learning reinforces existing advantages. Far from
    alleviating the impact of technological upheaval, that would risk
    exacerbating inequality and the social and economic tensions it
    brings in its wake.
    19)由于像新加坡共和国如此的例证,大家有可能想象使公众更易于取得和负担得起持续教育的主意。不过,也很不难——确实更便于——想象将来新出现的百年学习设施加强了现有的优势。远无法减轻技术剧变的熏陶,那将有加剧不同及其带来的社会和经济紧张的风险。
    This article appeared in the Special report section of the print
    edition under the headline “The elephant in the truck”

原稿出处:工学人杂志

译者:安东Anton

本译文仅供个人研习、欣赏语言之用,谢绝任何转发及用于其余商业用途。本译文所涉法律后果均由自己承担。本人同意简书平台在接获有关文章权人的打招呼后,删除文章。

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